Optimization and statistical analysis of experimental parameters

Optimization is achieved by fitting the simulated spectrum (image) to the experimental one image by using the minimization of the least-squares residuals, which are a function of the parameters image of the Hamiltonian. The goodness of least-squares fitting for one spectrum is defined as  image.  For a global fitting of multiple spectra with different experimental parameters, image for the individual spectrum is weighted by its own noise level. The global goodness of fitting is defined as:

image

where image and image are the noise variance and number of points in spectrum k, respectively.  We assume that the experimental envelope modulation is free of artifacts (for example microwave phase drift, “glitches” above the rms noise level), which is the case in our experiments [22; 23; 24], and that the noise variance of each point in the ESEEM waveform is identical (dead time points removed).  In this normalized representation and with the two assumptions, the variance of the simulation error of all data points image is estimated as follows:

image=image

where  image is the optimized image minimum at the global minimum, N is the total number of experimental points, as given by image, and L is the number of independent parameters for optimization.  image can be expanded at image, as:

image

where image are the optimal parameters when  image.  Assuming that the terms with order higher than two are negligible, and that the variance of the measurement errors follow a normal distribution, then the term:

image

follows a image distribution with a freedom of L [25].  The simultaneous confidence region of parameters image can be determined by the following expression:

image

The simultaneous confidence region gives an estimation of the uncertainty of a selected  optimization parameter with respect to the other parameters. The probability of the simultaneous confidence region containing the true values of image is determined by image and a, as a cumulative distribution of image  from image to a. For example, when L = 2 and a = 12, 22, or 32, the simultaneous confidence probability is 39.3%, 86.5% or 98.9%.